The calculated or estimated probability of an individual developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM), a chronic metabolic disorder characterized by insulin resistance and relative insulin deficiency, over a defined period. This risk is quantified based on a combination of genetic predispositions, lifestyle factors, and clinical biomarkers such as fasting glucose, HbA1c, and body mass index. Assessing and mitigating this risk is a central goal in preventative endocrinology and metabolic health.
Origin
The concept emerged from epidemiological studies identifying key modifiable and non-modifiable factors contributing to the disease’s development. The clinical term ‘risk’ is a statistical measure applied to an individual’s unique profile to inform proactive health strategies.
Mechanism
Type 2 Diabetes Risk is mechanistically driven by chronic insulin resistance, where target tissues like muscle, fat, and liver fail to respond effectively to insulin, leading to compensatory hyperinsulinemia. Over time, the pancreatic beta cells become exhausted and fail to produce sufficient insulin to overcome the resistance. Hormonal imbalances, particularly excess cortisol or reduced testosterone, can exacerbate insulin resistance, accelerating the progression toward overt T2DM.
Visceral fat in perimenopause significantly increases long-term risks for cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and cognitive decline by altering metabolic pathways.
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